Forecasts

Big part of the day I spent looking at forecasts for 2011, 2012 and 2013.   I played with a number of factors – such as economy in the US, UK, etc.  

My models work on a large number of assumptions – so not only is the ‘forecasting’ a little like rubbing a crystal ball, but also, since my numbers are not ‘firm’ – there is quite a bit of ambiguity.

Nevertheless, I will have hard (or perhaps harder) numbers in a week – and my forecasting and optimization methodology is in place – so I will be able to crystal ball things a bit more accurately.  The models forecast that basically scaling up on volume results in very significant margin growth.    Which makes sense – overheads and fixed costs get distributed against a larger volume.  And with ecommerce the overhead is very non-linear to topline sales.   And so, this prompted me to start looking at additional sites to buy.

Beyond that, RedStores vision is getting more and more refined.  Quite interesting – we had to go through an experimentation phase to reach the level of understanding at where we are now.   Always learning.   So, getting more and more tight on RedStores vision.   More on that on Monday after I run it via team and staff.

Halloween is upon us (almost) – so I’m taking the weekend of.  Couple cool parties to hit tomorrow night, one in a private by-invite-only club and then second one in the Beijing famous artist district.

And of course, with redStores on mind, I went for a Red costume.

 

 

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